White Men A Declining Force In Elections

October 17, 2008

This is truly fascinating:

“With each passing cycle, white men constitute a declining share of the electorate. They were almost half (47 percent) of all voters in 1952, but by 2004 were down to just more than a third (34 percent). Presuming a surge in black votes this year, along with the continued growth of the Asian and, especially, Hispanic vote shares, the 2008 election should take white males below a third of the electorate for the first time. Relatedly, this cycle could be the first in which one in four votes is cast by non-whites.”

Read the whole article by Alex Koppelman here.

Koppelman links to this article by Ron Brownstein in National Journal. Here’s the money quote:

“For all of the focus on whether Obama, as the first African-American nominee, can attract sufficient numbers of white voters, his struggle in that arena is hardly unique for his party’s presidential standard-bearers. Over the past five elections, no Democratic nominee has carried even a plurality of white voters, although Bill Clinton came close in 1992 and 1996 when Ross Perot siphoned a substantial number of them away to his independent candidacy.

White men have been particularly cool to Democrats. Only once since 1988 has the Republican nominee amassed less than a double-digit lead among white men. (That was in 1992, when Perot reached his high point.) And in both 2000 and 2004, white men provided George W. Bush with crushing margins of about 25 percentage points over his Democratic opponents.”


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